For every like there is a dislike.
It’s as true in fantasy baseball as it is in any walk of life, and since that Tuesday was my “sleeper” day, today, instead, let’s focus on the players I avoided in the draft.
As usual with a list like this, every time One of the 10 names on this list is a player I would like to add to the list at some price this season. Based on what they can provide in 2023, along with early average draft position (ADP) trends in both ESPN leagues and off-site, each of these shows is too expensive for my tastes.
So let’s take a look at the guys I love you To draft your lists so I don’t have to deal with them.
Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox: I’ve never had much faith in Anderson, which is easy to say when he’s ranked for point leagues rather than rotisserie formats. However, his 2022 raised several warning flags what format. Anderson has dealt with multiple injuries, first a groin strain that hampered his swing, and then surgery to repair a sagittal ligament tear in his left middle finger that ended his season in August. He also showed minimal recovery from the lost Statcast sprint speed he showed in 2021, with his 2022 rate sitting in the modest 76th percentile, and his .255 BABIP on ground balls — keep in mind that speed is an integral part of his fielding. a two-year slump and the second-lowest of his career.
Maybe Anderson is right that the groin injury is entirely responsible for his decline in production, but I don’t think he’s worth the asking price so far.
Andres Gimenez, 2B, Cleveland Cavaliers: He’s one of the best defenders in baseball in 2022, has increased his everyday role and has elite speed that makes another 20-steal season likely. He should have little trouble transitioning back into the stat line of a top-10 rotisserie second baseman. However, almost everything was right with the hitting, most notably the 40-point differential between Gimenez’s batting average (.297) and Statcast. expected batting average (.257), the fourth-widest gap among qualifiers in that direction. Additionally, his batting averages (36th percentile Statcast hard hitting and 33rd percentile barrel ratings) don’t mirror his 17 home runs.
He’s a solid, possible 100-caliber rotisserie pick, but even there he’s going 2-3 rounds sooner, and is a solid middle infielder in scoring leagues.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: If we’re talking about BA-xBA differentials, Goldschmidt’s 56 point differential (.317 vs. .261) was the league’s biggest. what direction, and his 52-point gap between his actual wOBA (.419) and expected wOBA (.367) was also the widest in the league. To be fair, Goldschmidt is an outstanding player, an unquestionable top-50 performer in any format. However, he’ll be ranked 23rd overall in March based on ESPN points or National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues, which is too expensive for my taste for a player who saw a lot go right last year.
Keep in mind that Goldschmidt’s Statcast sprint speed has also declined year-over-year, ranking in the 26th percentile last year, which means his seven steals last season may be more realistic than his 12 in 2021. .
Kenley Jansen, RP, Boston Red Sox: A sample of slow-hitting relief pitchers, Jansen’s pace last season was the third-slowest with the bases empty and the slowest with runners on base, according to Statcast — numbers that would have been seconds off the new pitch clock. restrictions. That would require significant adjustment, and it’s a legitimate concern given that Jansen didn’t have his top velocity from 2014-17 and showed slight declines in ground balls and hard hits (as well as average exit velocity).
He’s got the contract and experience to be widely recognized for his 30-plus saves, but he’s also 35 and now faces more questions than any other “top 10 RP” type, many of whom are electric, impact-inducing stuff. Jansen isn’t the closest fantasy to me.
Starling Marte, OF, New York Mets: His recent injury history, coupled with the fact that the now 34-year-old gets a good amount of his fantasy value from stolen bases, has raised concerns. A rib fracture sidelined him for five weeks in 2021, a partially broken right middle finger sidelined him for nearly a month at the end of the 2022 regular season, and major muscle surgery initially put him in jeopardy for Open Day status in 2023 before he returned to early action. During the Grapefruit League season.
Marte’s sprint speed, like Goldschmidt’s, has been in a declining pattern with his three worst performances over the last three seasons. He’s also brought back the good amount of contact he showed during his excellent run in 2018-19, which is very difficult for those of us in points leagues. He’s still a good building block in rotisserie leagues, but you’d probably need 75 picks to acquire him, which is too high a price in my estimation.
Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros: She has excellent A freshman year between becoming the fifth rookie in history with at least 20 homers and 10 stolen bases and winning the American League Championship Series and World Series MVP honors. Correa. In fact, Pena’s WAR, 4.9, was almost as high as Correa’s, 5.5! However, there are things that real life is better than fantasy talent, and Pena just might be capable of it.
He’s swinging very freely, walking just 3.9%, has a 51.5% slugging percentage since the All-Star break, and is hitting .243/.267/.398 over the last split. Pena still has work to do at that level, as teams will surely know after such a tumultuous rookie campaign. I recommend taking a step back and letting him work on his competitor list. Check it out as you enter 2024.
Jordan Romano, RP, Toronto Blue Jays: Like Jansen, Romano is close to job security and could be one of the stronger bets for 30-plus saves at the position for those reasons. The problem with his situation, however, is that 2022 looks like his peak, he’s had a huge gap in terms of ERA/xERA (1.20 difference), and he’s given up a lot of tough contact. So he seems to be taking a little step back.
Romano was ranked as the No. 4 reliever and No. 52 player in NFBC leagues in batting average through March, though he is considered one of the best at the position. He’s very valuable, as you can see from my rating (RP7/107 overall), but he’s not someone I’d put in the top tier of the position.
Blake Snell, SP, San Diego Padres: She has five back-to-back seasons with at least a 30% strikeout rate, and his expected 3.19 Statcast ERA last year was close to his Cy Young 2018 mark of 3.15. But that’s where all the positives stop as Snell is held to 107. , 135 (pandemic year 2020), 128 2/3 and 128 innings over the last four seasons, shows that staying healthy and going deep into games is very difficult. In those four seasons, he has a combined 25 wins and 28 quality starts, surpassing the likes of Brad Keller, Eric Lauer, Jordan Lyles, Wade Miley, Mike Minor and Martin Perez in both categories.
There’s something to be said for Snell’s fantasy production for one batter, but there’s also something to be said for pitchers who provide more volume.
Gleyber Torres, 2B, New York Yankees: It pains me to put him here, especially considering he set personal bests last season with his Statcast barrel (10.7%) and hard hitting rates (45.3%), but Torres looks like a position man in New York. Anthony Volpe’s eye-opening spring has filled the Yankees’ outfield, DJ LeMahew is now healthy and needs a spot to play, and Torres himself has been rumored to be in trade talks to acquire pitching through 2022.
Without an everyday spot, Torres’ fantasy appeal takes a hit — a problem for a player who barely finished in the top 10 at the position last season. If he does make a trade, it’s important to note that he has a career OPS 59 points higher at Yankee Stadium than on the road and a HR rate 1.3% higher than on the road.
Julio Urias, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: A member of last year’s roster, Urias’ true ERA (2.16) surpassed his Statcast-expected ERA (2.81) in his fourth season in 2022, so he’s proven he can do it again, right? Well, maybe. Yes, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball to suppress hard contact. However, Urias’ swing-and-miss propensity falls short of similar arms built around him on average, as his 12.4% swinging strikeout rate over the past two seasons is just a hair above the league average, and he’s not. he has the confidence to distribute the ball (40.0% GB, 28.5% FB rates last year) in any team’s loss.
Additionally, the Dodgers saw his innings cut short last year, making it doubtful that he could be trusted with a 200-pitch campaign. Urias is a very good pitcher, but he’s not a top 15 fantasy starter for me, despite the fact that he’s often ranked or drafted as one.